After years of steep gains, home prices have started slipping in some metro areas. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index, which tracks repeat sales and appraisals of the same homes, shows which ones.
Of the 119 metro areas containing a US city of 150,000+ people, prices fell over the year to 2026 Q2 in 11 and were flat in 1. In the typical metro, they rose +2.6%.
Metro areas where prices fell
| Metro area | Cities | Change, year to 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland-Fremont-Berkeley, CA | Oakland, CA, Fremont, CA, Hayward, CA | −4.8% |
| Stockton-Lodi, CA | Stockton, CA | −1.8% |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | Oxnard, CA | −1.3% |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | San Jose, CA, Sunnyvale, CA | −1.0% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | Cape Coral, FL, Lehigh Acres, FL | −0.9% |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | Port St. Lucie, FL | −0.6% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | San Antonio, TX | −0.5% |
| Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO | Denver, CO, Aurora, CO, Lakewood, CO | −0.5% |
| San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA | San Francisco, CA | −0.3% |
| Salem, OR | Salem, OR | −0.2% |
| St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo, FL | St. Petersburg, FL | −0.1% |
California has 5 of these, mostly in the Bay Area and the Central Valley. Florida has 3: Cape Coral–Fort Myers, Port St. Lucie and St. Petersburg. Denver, San Antonio and Salem, Oregon round out the list.
Where prices are still rising fastest
| Metro area | Cities | Change, year to 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu, HI | Honolulu, HI | +11.1% |
| Newark, NJ | Newark, NJ | +6.3% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL | Chicago, IL, Naperville, IL, Joliet, IL | +6.2% |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | Milwaukee, WI | +6.2% |
| Lexington-Fayette, KY | Lexington, KY | +6.1% |
| Montgomery, AL | Montgomery, AL | +6.0% |
| Elgin, IL | Aurora, IL | +6.0% |
| New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ | New York, NY, Jersey City, NJ, Yonkers, NY | +5.7% |
Index prices vs. list prices
The FHFA index is built from actual sales and refinance appraisals of the same homes over time, so it measures what homes are worth, not what sellers are asking. List prices can move differently: in the 30 cities where we track live listings, list prices are below last year's in 19. Both are real; they answer different questions.
What it means
- Buyers in falling metros have more room to negotiate. Days on market shows where homes are sitting.
- Sellers in these metros should price for the market they're in. See sell now or wait.
- Owners who aren't moving can mostly ignore one year. Even in these metros, the index rose 19% to 66% from 2020 to 2025 (annual averages), so a dip of a percent or two gives back only a small part of that.
Each city's home value forecast uses its metro's index. For a specific ZIP code, use Predictye Property.
Sources
- Federal Housing Finance Agency, all-transactions house price index, metro areas and metro divisions, quarterly, through 2026 Q2. Metro areas matched to cities through each city's principal county (OMB 2023 delineations).
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