Two numbers about home prices are telling different stories right now.
The first is this year's direction. Across the 30 large cities we track, typical list prices are lower than a year ago in 19 of them, from -0.2% in Sacramento to -10.0% in Tucson.
The second is the long-run trend. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index, which follows repeat sales of the same homes, rose between 1.9% and 10.4% a year from 2020 to 2025 in the ZIP codes we sample, positive in every one of the 30 cities.
Both are real. They measure different things over different periods.
Why they disagree
Different periods. The FHFA figure covers 2020 to 2025, which includes the pandemic-era surge in prices. A five-year average that contains a boom will look strong even if the last year was flat or down.
Different measures. List prices are what sellers are asking today, for whatever happens to be on the market. If more starter homes are listed this year than last, the typical list price can fall even if no individual home lost value. The FHFA index compares sales of the same homes over time, which strips that mix effect out.
Different speed. Asking prices react within months. Repeat-sales indexes lag, because they're built from closed sales.
Where the gap is widest
| City | List prices vs a year ago | FHFA trend 2020–2025 | |---|---|---| | Tucson, AZ | -10.0% | +10.0% a year | | Philadelphia, PA | -8.1% | +6.8% a year | | Memphis, TN | -6.7% | +8.7% a year | | Austin, TX | -6.1% | +5.4% a year | | San Diego, CA | -5.7% | +9.0% a year | | Nashville, TN | -4.7% | +8.7% a year |
How we handle it
Projecting a five-year rise straight from a boom-era average, while today's prices are falling, would overstate where values are heading. So our home value forecasts follow this year's list-price direction for the first two years, then return to the FHFA long-run average for years three to five. Where the two point in opposite directions, the page says so in plain language.
Austin is the clearest example. A typical home listed at $489,000 projects to about $459,000 in 2027 on this year's direction, before the long-run trend takes over. See the full Austin home value forecast.
Which number matters for you
- Selling in the next year or two? Today's direction matters most. Price to the current market, not to 2022.
- Buying to stay ten years? The long-run trend matters more than any single year, and short-term softness can be an entry point.
- Deciding whether to wait? Watch whether this year's decline is slowing. A turn usually shows up in asking prices first.
For your own ZIP code, Predictye Property projects values to the year you plan to sell.
Don't guess. Just Predictye.