If it feels like rent only ever goes up, the last two years have been an exception in most big American cities.
We track median asking rents for 30 large US cities, using RentCast market data for each city's most populous ZIP codes. In 25 of the 30, the rent trend since mid-2024 is negative. Only five are rising: Milwaukee (+3.4% a year), New York (+2.5%), Indianapolis (+2.0%), Chicago (+1.9%), and Detroit (+0.2%).
Where rent is falling fastest
The steepest declines are in cities that built a lot of new apartments during the boom years:
| City | Annual rent trend | Typical rent now | |---|---|---| | Seattle, WA | -7.8% | $1,895/mo | | Tucson, AZ | -7.3% | $1,060/mo | | Columbus, OH | -6.7% | $1,335/mo | | Los Angeles, CA | -6.6% | $2,505/mo | | Portland, OR | -5.7% | $1,585/mo | | Austin, TX | -5.6% | $1,705/mo |
The trend compares the latest three months of median asking rent with the earliest three since mid-2024, in each sampled ZIP code, weighted by how many listings each ZIP has. Typical rent is the listing-weighted average of those ZIP medians, across all bedroom counts.
Why rent falls
Rent is set by supply and demand like any other price. When a wave of new buildings opens at once, landlords compete for the same tenants, and asking rents soften, often with a month or two free on top. Many Sun Belt and West Coast metros saw exactly that wave in 2023 and 2024.
A falling trend doesn't mean every building is cheaper. Rents in a new luxury tower and a 1970s walk-up move differently, and one ZIP can rise while the city average falls. That's why our city pages break the numbers down ZIP by ZIP.
What it means for your lease
If your city's rent is falling, you have more negotiating room than headlines suggest. A shorter lease keeps your options open if rents keep slipping, and it's reasonable to ask for a renewal at or below your current rate. Check the trend for your own ZIP with Predictye Rent before you sign.
If your city's rent is rising, locking in a longer lease protects you from the next increase. In New York, for example, typical asking rent is $3,690 a month and trending up 2.5% a year. See the full breakdown on the New York rent forecast.
Either way, don't assume the national story is your story. The same two years that brought rent down 7.8% a year in Seattle brought it up 3.4% a year in Milwaukee.
Trends turn
Two years of data is a trend, not a law. When the new supply is absorbed, rents tend to firm up again, and cities that are falling fastest today could be the first to turn. Treat any forecast as a direction, check it again before each renewal, and look at your own ZIP rather than a city average.
You can see every city's numbers, ZIP by ZIP, on the rent or buy by city page.
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