Used electronics don't lose value smoothly. A big share of the drop happens around one event: the launch of the next model. Once the new version is announced, the old one is suddenly last year's, and buyers adjust what they'll pay.
The useful part is that launches are predictable.
The launch calendar
- iPhone: Apple has announced new iPhones in September every year since 2012.
- Samsung Galaxy S: recent generations have launched in January or February. The S24 arrived in January 2024 and the S25 in January 2025.
- Google Pixel: recent flagship Pixels have been announced in August.
- MacBooks and iPads: less regular, but Apple refreshes them often enough that a new chip generation is never far away.
How much value is at stake
The first year is the steepest. BankMyCell's 2021–2022 phone depreciation report found that flagship iPhones lost an average of 13.83% of their trade-in value in year one, while flagship Android phones lost 32.06%. A launch tends to land right in that window.
For a phone worth $550 on the used market, a 14% drop is about $75; a 32% drop is about $175. That's the cost of waiting past the next launch.
The selling playbook
- List a few weeks before the announcement, not after. Buyers who want a deal on the current model are still shopping, and there's no flood of trade-ins yet.
- Avoid the week after launch. That's when everyone upgrading lists their old phone at once.
- Sell complete. Box, charger, and a clean battery-health figure all lift the price.
- Check the going rate first. Our iPhone 15 Pro Max page shows recent eBay sales (currently $495–$620 used) and where that price is likely to go. For other devices, the photo analyzer estimates value now and later.
When waiting makes sense
If you're keeping the phone anyway, the launch isn't a reason to sell. It's a reason to know what the phone is worth if you change your mind. And if you're buying, the weeks after a launch are often the best time to pick up the previous model used.
Don't guess. Just Predictye.