Short answer: Yes, California home prices are forecast to rise in 2027, most likely by 3 to 4 percent statewide. On the current median of around $905,000, that is roughly $27,000 to $36,000 in a single year. Coastal metros are projected to gain more (4 to 6 percent), inland and Central Valley markets less (0 to 2 percent). The exact number depends heavily on where mortgage rates land.
Here is the full breakdown of how much, and where.
How much, in dollars, statewide
California's statewide median is the anchor number. Here is the trajectory and what each percentage actually means in dollars:
| Year | Median price | Change | Dollar change | |------|-------------|--------|---------------| | 2024 | $865,400 | baseline | — | | 2025 | $873,900 | +1.0% | +$8,500 | | 2026 (forecast) | $905,000 | +3.6% | +$31,100 | | 2027 (projected) | ~$935,000 to $941,000 | +3 to 4% | +$27,000 to $36,000 |
Source: California Association of Realtors forecast. The 2027 figure applies the consensus 3 to 4 percent growth range to the 2026 record projection.
So in plain terms: if you own a median-priced California home, the data suggests it gains roughly $27,000 to $36,000 in value during 2027 alone. That is the "how much" at the state level.
How much, by metro
Statewide averages hide enormous differences. A home in the Bay Area and one in Sacramento are on completely different trajectories. Here is the projected 1-year change by metro, with the dollar impact on a typical home in each:
| Metro | Typical value | Projected 1-yr change | Dollar gain | |-------|--------------|----------------------|-------------| | San Francisco Bay Area | $1,000,000+ | +3 to 6% | +$30,000 to $60,000 | | Los Angeles / Long Beach | ~$942,000 | flat to +2% | $0 to +$19,000 | | San Diego / Carlsbad | ~$918,000 | +1 to 2% | +$9,000 to $18,000 | | Riverside / San Bernardino | ~$575,000 | +2.3% | +$13,000 | | Sacramento / Roseville | ~$566,000 | +0.2% | +$1,000 | | Stockton / Central Valley | ~$520,000 | +0.5% | +$2,600 |
The biggest dollar gains are in the coastal metros, simply because the base prices are so high. A 5 percent gain on a $1M Bay Area home is $50,000. The Inland Empire offers the strongest percentage growth outside the coast at 2.3 percent, reflecting buyers priced out of coastal areas moving inland.
Why the range is 3 to 4 percent and not higher
Three forces cap how much prices can rise in 2027:
1. Mortgage rates. The single biggest variable. The 30-year fixed has held above 6 percent and drifted higher through 2026, rather than falling to the 6.0 percent that was forecast. If rates fall in 2027, buying power rises and prices push to the top of the range. If they stay high, growth lands at the bottom.
2. Affordability. Only about 18 percent of California households can afford a median-priced home. That is a hard ceiling. Prices cannot rise fast when 82 percent of the population is already priced out.
3. Tight supply. This is the force pushing prices up. Inventory stays low, homes sell in 30 to 50 days, and sellers still get near their asking price. Low supply is why prices rise at all despite the affordability ceiling.
So how much will your home gain?
Here is the honest limit of any statewide or metro article: the average tells you almost nothing about your specific property. A 3.6 percent statewide number blends a flat Sacramento condo with a surging Bay Area house. Your home's actual trajectory depends on its exact location, size, condition, and micro-market.
That is what Predictye is built to answer. Instead of a regional average, you get a data-backed estimate of your own property's current value and its projected future value, based on your address and local market signals. If you want the real "how much" for your home rather than the state, that is the number that matters. Check your property's forecast on Predictye.
The bottom line
Yes, California home prices are forecast to rise in 2027, most likely 3 to 4 percent statewide, or roughly $27,000 to $36,000 on a median home. Coastal metros gain the most in dollars, inland metros the least. Mortgage rates decide whether it lands at the top or bottom of that range. For your own home, the specific number matters far more than the state average.
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